Nicholas Mangee

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Black Swans, Animal Spirits and Scapegoats

Summary and Appendix Files

When unscheduled events hit the stock market, from corporate scandals and technological breakthroughs to recessions and pandemics, relationships driving returns change in unforeseeable ways. To deal with uncertainty, investors engage in narratives which simplify the complexity of real-time, non-routine change. Narratives themselves are a source of uncertainty as investors tell stories that others have told them and so on. This book assesses the Novelty-Narrative Hypothesis for the U.S. stock market by conducting a comprehensive investigation of unscheduled events through big data textual news analysis of Dow Jones and Bloomberg News financial reports. Analysis is motivated by great early thinkers of modern-day capital markets, such as Knight, Keynes and Popper, and recent evidence from outside disciplines, such as cognitive psychology, sociology, and linguistics. Findings suggest that major macro events and associated narratives spill over into the churning stream of corporate novelty and sub-narratives spawning different forms of unforeseeable stock market instability.  https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/how-novelty-and-narratives-drive-the-stock-market/5F5AA2E026B095351287050E91D4B1B2

How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market

Author: Nicholas Mangee
Last modified: 7/24/2024 10:15 AM (EST)